CPI Out - Looks Like a Market Top

Either this is it or it is likely very close

Friday, December 10, 2021

Published irregularly, as conditions dictate.

NY FED UIG is out at 230 for a better picture on inflation, but this is bad. The top certainly looks like it is in here, selling has started, look at these charts with all sorts of data updated by the fed this morning:

First off, total Fed Assets have gone nowhere since 11/2. Its as if they are doing a 100% "taper" to see “how it plays in the marketplace:”

Next up, the big valuation measures have all appeared to have topped out, and it does demonstrate there is liquidation now

See the "hook" at the top? See what has happened at other market tops? The same with the following:

Here is an alternative measure to this:

Finally, ten-year trailing PE (CAPE) also showing the hook-type topping action seen at other market tops:

We also see this hook in ISM Consumer Confidence Future-Current Expectations:

Even in the difference between ISM and UMich Consumer Expectations:

Of more importance, earnings, on a real basis, getting murdered (even on a forward earnings basis, they are -2%!):

You've got to go back to just after WW2 to find inflation-adjusted earnings this bad!

Next, retail sales adjusted for inflation, en route to seemingly more trouble, shown here as a percentage off the top:

All this spells real trouble, line it up vis-a-vis the current complacency and belief that it’s all smooth sailing into 2022 and this can hit any minute. I don’t see how the top can not have either already been put in, or put in within the next couple of months.