Don't be fooled

Despite the past two days, little in the underlying data has changed. Even today, we still had over 4% new lows, and the daily range of the S&P, 20-day average, is still over 2% (in fact it is at its highest for the past year) Even f4-f7 of VIX is still negative, and the credit markets, despite the past two days, are all in very negative position for equities.

Breadth is still sick. The a/d line is a long, long way from making a new high, as are the other measures. This drop from the highs of Q4 is not over! Iin fact, by my measures it has a very long way to go yet, and won’t even be considering looking for a bottom until we have a day with at least ten to fifteen billion shares traded on NYSE.

We are nowhere near this. This is a very, very precarious market, and I believe still, based on my numbers, we are days if not hours from an extremely serious drop.