Right in the midst of it still
No reason to believe in a interim bottom is in
As the title points out, there’s no reason to believe we are at an interim bottom yet. Yesterday we again recorded over 4% new highs, and the 20 day average range on SP500 cash is still over 2%, classic selloff profile.
Volume yesterday was perfectly NORMAL - this won’t be the case at the bottom of this drop.
VIX futures F4-F7 is still POSITIVE (unbelievably), this too wont be the case at the bottom of this drop.
VIX has only been up 1 day in a row here.
Credit spreads continue to widen. This is damning.
This move is still on, taking another turn here overnight and at the open, and perhaps today as well, to suck in more people.
I read a ZH article this morning about how the youngsters think there is so much hedging (especially with puts) going on:
So I went and looked at my own data I keep - because, keeping it daily by hand, the article doesn't ring true to me. So I looked at the ratio of call open interest (indexes, individual stocks, what CBOE calls "all products") ratio to puts. Here is what I see
The ratio of calls-to-outs peaked out in Q2 of 2021. Currently, the ratio of put open interest to call open in interest is still very normal, in fact, more in favor of higher towards the calls end.
No reason to be anything but short here. More as conditions change….